Q4 2026 Market Report

Steel prices continued to escalate and lead times extended in the second half of 2026 as steel producers struggled to keep up with demand from data center and other large projects. The average mill price for a W14x68 steel beam rose 6% from $1,650 per ton in June to $1,750 per ton in October, which is 25% higher than a year ago. Nucor, the largest U.S. steel producer, announced a $50 to $80 per ton price increase on various steel members effective August 3, 2026, and another $50 per ton price increase on all structural and piling products effective October 1, 2026. Nucor Tubular Products, which produces HSS (tube steel), also announced a price increase of $80 per ton on August 7, 2026. The lead time for steel ordered directly from mills, which is typically 15–20 weeks, extended to as long as 55–60 weeks for certain sizes and orders.

As steel orders for data center and other “mega” projects consumed domestic mill capacity in Q3, fabricators received reduced allocations of steel (i.e., mills would not sell them all the steel they ordered). Tariffs, meanwhile, increased the cost of imported steel options, which also come with long lead times and unreliable delivery. As a result, many fabricators were left to purchase steel on the secondary market from service centers, where prices have surged over 50% this year.

Joist and deck pricing and lead times also increased in the third quarter. The combined price for steel joists and deck (not including tax) on warehouse buildings over 75,000 gross square feet (GSF) was $6.80 per GSF, a 51% increase since Q1. Vulcraft also recently announced a price increase of “at least 10%” on all new joist and deck quotes, effective Monday, November 2, 2026. The lead time for joists and deck is currently 16–18 weeks, up from 12 weeks at the start of 2026.

Finally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for aluminum mill shapes increased 25.2% in the 12 months ending September 2026, and the PPI for nonferrous (for example, copper) wire and cable increased 23% over the same period.

SOURCES: American Institute of Steel Construction (citing Nucor-Yamato Steel Company, Steel Dynamics, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics); Producer Price Indexes, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Nucor-Yamato Steel Company; Nucor Tubular Products; Vulcraft

Fuel prices also rose in the third quarter as military strikes continued to disrupt petroleum supplies from the Middle East and Russia. The price of petroleum products rose throughout Q3 after the U.S.-Iran military conflict resumed on July 7. Prices further spiked in early September following military attacks on crude oil tankers, a crude oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia, and a major Russian oil terminal on the Black Sea. China also increased its crude oil imports during the third quarter, adding pressure to dwindling supply.

The retail price for a gallon of No. 2 Diesel Ultra Low Sulfur (0–15 ppm) fuel in the Lower Atlantic region climbed to $6.14 on September 21, its highest price since 2007, and remains $5.81 per gallon as of November 2, 2026. Diesel prices across the country, meanwhile, were even higher, peaking at an average of $6.53 per gallon on September 21 (also a post-2007 high) and still $6.29 per gallon on November 2. In Georgia, the average price for gasoline is currently $3.58 per gallon, up almost a dollar since January, while diesel averages $5.66 per gallon, a $2.20 increase over the same period.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Middle East oil exports to remain restricted during Q4 before gradually increasing over the next 13–24 months. The EIA forecasts average U.S. prices of $4.50 per gallon for diesel and $3.60 per gallon for gasoline in 2027.

SOURCES: U.S. Energy Information Administration; Georgia Department of Transportation Fuel Price Index